The framework · evidence base v1.2

Five domains.
Every claim cited.
Nothing hyped.

This is what Ilfirin coaches toward. It isn't built around any one expert — it's a synthesis of large prospective cohorts, meta-analyses, and causal (Mendelian-randomization) evidence. Where the research is strong, we say so. Where it's thin, we say that too — and we don't anchor there.

Every number below traces to a named, dated, peer-reviewed source. We'd rather under-claim than overstate.

How we weigh evidence

The evidence-tier ladder.

Not all evidence is equal. Every recommendation on this page carries a tier so you know what's rock-solid versus what's still emerging. Most coaches just say they're "research-backed" — we show you which research, and how strong it is, including when something popular (NMN, cold plunges, fasting) is still unproven. We prioritize Tier 1, and we don't promote interventions above the tier their evidence supports.

Tier 1

Foundational

Large prospective cohorts (≥100k participants), meta-analyses that converge across populations, Mendelian-randomization causal evidence, or consistent RCTs. These are the things to prioritize. Most of this page is here.

Tier 2

Well-supported

Multiple cohort studies, smaller but consistent meta-analyses, mechanistic plausibility. Worth following — just less certain than Tier 1.

Tier 3

Emerging

Limited cohorts, conflicting findings, or a strong mechanism but little human-outcome data. Worth tracking; weak commitment. We tell you it's emerging.

Tier 4

Insufficient

Heavily promoted online but weak human evidence. We do not anchor here — and we name the things that live here so you can spot the hype.

The Pentad · five domains

The whole picture, in five domains.

Exercise is necessary but not sufficient. The framework ranks domains by the magnitude of their mortality and healthspan impact in the strongest available evidence — and each carries its receipts.

Domain 1

Movement

Cardiorespiratory fitness, muscular strength, daily activity, and balance. The single highest-leverage domain in the strongest evidence — and most of it is captured automatically by your wearable.

VO2 max is the strongest exercise-related longevity signal

In a head-to-head, cardiorespiratory fitness predicts mortality more powerfully than smoking, hypertension, or diabetes — with no observed upper limit of benefit. The curve never flattens; fitter is better, even past elite-for-age.

  • Anchor on your FRIEND age/sex percentile, not a raw number — aim above the 75th percentile and one decile higher year over year.
  • Train it with a polarized mix: mostly easy Zone 2 plus 1–2 hard interval sessions a week.
Mandsager 2018, JAMA Netw Open (n=122,007); Kokkinos 2022, JACC (n=750,302); Kaminsky 2017, Mayo Clin Proc (FRIEND percentiles).
Tier 1 Cardiorespiratory fitness

Grip strength is a separate, continuous mortality signal

Independent of cardiovascular fitness. The dose-response is a smooth gradient, not a cliff: each 5 kg less grip is associated with ~16% higher all-cause mortality across 17 countries.

  • Working thresholds: men ≥40 kg, women ≥27 kg by middle age — and maintained or improving year over year.
  • Keep hand-to-hand asymmetry under ~5 kg.
Leong 2015, Lancet (PURE, n=142,861) for the dose-response; EWGSOP2 2019, Age Ageing for the clinical cut-offs.
Tier 1 Muscular strength

Resistance training has a sweet spot — and it's modest

Strength training cuts all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality on a J-shaped curve. Maximum benefit lands at just 30–60 minutes per week. More is not categorically better; past ~60 min/week the benefit plateaus.

  • Two ~30-minute sessions a week, compound movements, progressive overload.
Momma 2022, Br J Sports Med (16-cohort meta); Shailendra 2022, Am J Prev Med.
Tier 1 Strength dose-response

Daily steps, with a real ceiling

Mortality drops steeply with more daily activity — but the benefit largely flattens by ~7,000–9,000 steps. The famous 10,000 isn't magic; it adds little beyond the sweet spot.

  • 7,000–10,000 steps on most days; cadence ≥100 steps/min during sustained walks.
Paluch 2022, Lancet Public Health (15-cohort meta); Ding 2025, Lancet Public Health; Brown 2020 (cadence).
Tier 1 Daily activity

Balance and the ability to get off the floor

Less direct mortality data than the above, but simple field tests of balance and floor-transfer predict it — most relevant in adults 50+, where falls drive major morbidity.

  • Single-leg balance ≥30 s; sit-rise test ≥8 of 11; a few minutes of mobility most days.
Brito 2014, Eur J Prev Cardiol (sit-rise); Araujo 2022, Br J Sports Med (10-second balance).
Tier 2 Mobility & balance
Domain 2

Recovery

Sleep duration and consistency, autonomic regulation, and how well you bounce back. Mostly captured by your wearable — with one self-rated check-in that, surprisingly, often beats the sensors.

Sleep duration is U-shaped — and consistency may matter more

Mortality is lowest near ~7 hours; both short and long sleep climb from there. But day-to-day regularity is a stronger predictor than duration in recent data — the top quintile of sleep-regularity saw 20–48% lower mortality even after adjusting for how long people slept.

  • 7–8 hours most nights; keep bedtime and wake time within ~30–60 min day to day.
Yin 2017, J Am Heart Assoc (duration); Windred 2024, Sleep (UK Biobank, n=60,977 — regularity).
Tier 1 Sleep & regularity

Heart-rate recovery and HRV — honest, but noisy

Both predict mortality beyond resting heart rate. We render them carefully: HRV as a rolling z-score against your own baseline (single-day numbers invite panic), and we flag when a workout's recovery profile makes the HRR target invalid rather than scoring it wrong.

  • HRR <12 bpm at one minute post-effort is the high-risk threshold; ≥20 bpm is an athletic target (passive cool-down only).
  • Resting heart rate low and stable; we watch for sustained drift as an early illness/overreach signal.
Cole 1999, NEJM (HRR threshold <12 bpm); Plews 2013, Sports Med (HRV noise caveat).
Tier 1 Autonomic recovery

How you feel often beats the sensors

A counterintuitive finding worth honoring: a simple morning rating of sleep, soreness, and energy is more sensitive to training-load change than HRV or submaximal heart rate. So a ~30-second check-in is a real signal, not a formality.

  • Daily 1–5 ratings; we flag two low days in a row as a counterweight to the wearable.
Saw 2016, Br J Sports Med (56-study meta, n>9,000 — subjective effect sizes 2–3× larger).
Tier 1 Subjective readiness

Screen for sleep apnea — it's deadly and treatable

Untreated moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea independently raises all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, and it's fixable. We treat our wearable oxygen-variation reading as a screening flag, never a diagnosis.

  • Loud habitual snoring, witnessed pauses, daytime sleepiness, or resistant high blood pressure → get a sleep study.
Young 2008, Sleep (Wisconsin, n=1,522); Marshall 2008, Sleep (Busselton). Screening is Tier 1; CPAP-for-prevention is Tier 2.
Tier 1 Sleep-apnea screening
Domain 3

Fuel

Diet quality, protein adequacy, fiber, ultra-processed share, and alcohol. We track what you actually eat and show you the evidence. We don't moralize — pattern beats perfection.

The Mediterranean pattern is the most RCT-proven way to eat

One of the few dietary patterns tested in a hard-outcome randomized trial: it cut major cardiovascular events ~30% in a high-risk population. Vegetables, legumes, whole grains, nuts, olive oil, fish; little red and processed meat.

  • Plants and legumes at most meals; fish 2+×/week; olive oil as the primary fat.
Estruch 2013/2018, NEJM (PREDIMED, n=7,447 RCT); Trichopoulou 2003, NEJM.
Tier 1 Dietary pattern

Fiber and ultra-processed share are two of the strongest single signals

Each extra 8 g/day of fiber is associated with ~19% lower all-cause mortality. On the other side, higher ultra-processed intake tracks ~21% higher all-cause mortality — and a controlled inpatient trial showed it drives spontaneous overeating.

  • Fiber ≥30 g/day (men), ≥25 g/day (women); keep obviously ultra-processed food under ~20% of calories.
Reynolds 2019, Lancet (WHO umbrella review); Lane 2024, BMJ (45 meta-analyses, ~10M); Hall 2019, Cell Metab (inpatient RCT).
Tier 1 Fiber · UPF share

Protein: a range, not a single number

The right target depends on your goal state, so we hold a range rather than a dogma. Per-meal dose matters as much as the daily total.

  • Lean, active, at maintenance: 1.4–1.6 g/kg/day. In a deficit: up to ~2.2 g/kg. Aim ≥30 g per meal across 3–4 meals.
Morton 2018, Br J Sports Med (plateau ~1.6 g/kg); Helms 2014 (deficit); Moore 2015 (per-meal dose). Tier 2.
Tier 2 Protein adequacy

Alcohol: health-optimal is zero — and we won't lecture you

The "moderate drinking is protective" story has largely been retracted; the old benefit was an artifact of sick people quitting. The level that minimizes health loss is zero. Honestly, though: below ~25 g/day the data are methodologically contested — the load-bearing harm is well above that, for cancer, and is causal.

  • Less is better; there is no "minimum safe dose." We report the literature and track your actual intake — no judgment.
Griswold 2018, Lancet (GBD, 592 studies); Zhao 2023, JAMA Netw Open; Stockwell 2024 (abstainer-bias correction).
Tier 1 Alcohol exposure

Glucose regulation predates diabetes by a decade

Insulin resistance shows up in the data long before a diabetes diagnosis. Our primary anchor is the TyG index — computable from any standard lipid + glucose panel, and more reproducible than fasting insulin.

  • HbA1c <5.7% (ideally <5.4%); fasting glucose <100 mg/dL; TyG index <4.49.
Simental-Mendía 2008; Sánchez-Íñigo 2016, Eur J Clin Invest (n=5,014); Ding 2021, Cardiovasc Diabetol (meta n=5.4M).
Tier 1 Glucose regulation
Domain 4

Biology

The biomarkers from your bloodwork. Upload your annual physical or longevity panel and Ilfirin reads it, compares to evidence-based targets, and computes the markers most labs don't surface for you.

ApoB is the cardiovascular headline — it's causal

By Mendelian randomization, ApoB-bearing particles cause atherosclerotic heart disease; cumulative lifetime exposure is what matters. It's a more accurate risk marker than LDL-C because every atherogenic particle counts roughly equally.

  • <90 mg/dL average risk; <80 if elevated risk; <65 with existing disease. Plus Lp(a) <50 nmol/L (one-time) and hsCRP <1.0 mg/L.
  • A one-time coronary calcium scan at 45–55 sharpens the target.
Ference 2017, Eur Heart J (EAS consensus, MR); Sniderman 2019, JAMA Cardiol; Whelton 2024, JACC: Advances (CAC).
Tier 1 Cardiovascular markers

Blood pressure: 120–139 is actionable, not "acceptable"

Modern guidelines stopped treating anything under 130/80 as fine. The 2024 European guideline created an "elevated" band (120–139 / 70–89) that calls for lifestyle change for everyone and treatment if it stays up in higher-risk people.

  • <120/80 is the anchor; 120–139 is a zone to actively lower, not tolerate. We also track pulse pressure and visit-to-visit variability.
McEvoy 2024, Eur Heart J 45:3912–4018 (ESC); Stevens 2016, BMJ + Wang 2024 (variability).
Tier 1 Blood pressure

Free markers most labs never compute for you

From a standard CBC + lipid panel we derive several validated inflammation and lipid-risk markers at no extra cost — the kind of signal buried in a printout you'd otherwise file away.

  • NLR <2.0, RDW <13.5%, AIP <0.11, plus NHR — all computed from labs you already have.
Song 2021, Atherosclerosis (NLR); Hong 2019, Sci Rep (RDW, n=27,063); Tan 2024, Lipids Health Dis (AIP). Tier 2.
Tier 2 Computed inflammation

PhenoAge — a biological-age trend, never a precise number

PhenoAge estimates biological age from ten standard lab values and predicts mortality well. But it's responsive to a passing illness or a hard training block, so a single reading can mislead by years. We show it as a glanceable trend and won't hang decisions on one number. No $300 epigenetic "aging clock" required.

  • Target PhenoAge ≤ your chronological age; interpret only with ≥2 measurements ≥3 months apart.
Liu/Levine 2018, PLOS Med (NHANES, HR 1.09/yr acceleration). Tier 2 — not Tier 1, and not a number to act on alone.
Tier 2 Biological age
Domain 5

Environment

The conditions you live in — social connection, air, light, noise, purpose, your senses. The most-overlooked domain, and several of its anchors rival the physical ones in size.

Loneliness rivals smoking as a mortality risk

One of the strongest non-physical longevity signals there is — the mortality impact of social isolation is comparable to smoking ~15 cigarettes a day. We use the validated 3-item UCLA scale, not a vague mood rating, and you self-report — we don't surveil your social life.

  • UCLA-3 loneliness score ≤4; aim for several hours of in-person time with people outside your household each week.
Holt-Lunstad 2015, Perspect Psychol Sci (70 studies, 3.4M); Wang 2023, Nat Hum Behav (90 cohorts, 2.2M).
Tier 1 Social connection

Air quality has no safe threshold

Fine-particle (PM2.5) exposure raises mortality on a straight line all the way down — there's no clean cutoff below which it's "safe," just lower-is-better. Indoor air dominates total dose for most adults.

  • Target annual PM2.5 around the WHO 5 µg/m³ guideline / EPA 9 µg/m³ floor; in radon-prone areas, test once.
Burnett 2018, PNAS (GEMM, 41 cohorts); EPA 2024 NAAQS; WHO 2021 AQG; Darby 2005, BMJ (radon).
Tier 1 Air quality

Light, circadian rhythm, and noise

Bright nights and dark days each independently predict higher mortality in large actigraphy data; chronic environmental noise is causally linked to cardiovascular death. Cheap to address, easy to ignore.

  • <1 lux in the bedroom while sleeping; ≥30 min outdoor daylight, ideally early; keep nighttime bedroom noise low.
Windred 2024 & Burns 2023 (UK Biobank, light); Mason 2022, PNAS; Münzel 2021, Eur Heart J (noise).
Tier 1 Light · circadian · noise

Purpose, the senses, and a screening calendar

Self-rated purpose independently predicts lower mortality. Untreated hearing and vision loss are linked to cognitive decline. And some screenings cut mortality directly through early detection — so we keep an age-appropriate calendar.

  • Purpose ≥5/7 (watch sustained drops); hearing test 50+, eye exam every 1–2 years 40+; colonoscopy at 45, plus age/sex-appropriate cancer screens.
Cohen 2016, Psychosom Med (purpose, n=136,265); Loughrey 2018, JAMA Otolaryngol (sensory); USPSTF screening recommendations; Livingston 2024, Lancet (~45% of dementia modifiable).
Tier 1 Purpose · senses · screening
The honest part

What we don't promote.

These get heavy airtime in longevity influencer space, but the human-outcome evidence isn't there yet. Saying so is part of the product. If you enjoy any of them and they're safe, that's your call — we just won't dress them up as foundational.

Tier 3

Cold plunges

A recent meta-analysis found a brief stress dip and a short-lived quality-of-life bump that was gone by 90 days — plus a small rise in acute inflammation right after. No mortality data. Marketing has outrun the evidence.

Cain 2025, PLOS One (11 RCTs, n=3,177).
Tier 3

Time-restricted eating / intermittent fasting

Mechanistically plausible, but the human data are mixed — a controlled trial found no body-composition advantage over normal eating when calories were matched. A fine strategy if it suits you; not a pillar.

Lowe 2020, JAMA Intern Med.
Tier 3–4

Rapamycin, metformin, NMN/NR, senolytics

Real model-organism and mechanistic data — but no human mortality or healthspan-RCT outcomes for any of them. Rapamycin's recent human trial missed its primary endpoint; metformin may blunt exercise gains in non-diabetics; NAD⁺ precursors raise NAD⁺ without a demonstrated functional benefit. We'll revisit each as outcomes land.

PEARL 2024/25 (rapamycin); Konopka 2019, Aging Cell (metformin); 2025 NAD⁺-precursor meta-analysis.
Tier 2, caveated

Sauna

Strong association with lower mortality — but from a single Finnish, single-sex, sauna-normalized cohort, with limited replication elsewhere. Worth including if you have access and enjoy it; not foundational.

Laukkanen 2015, JAMA Intern Med (Kuopio, n=2,315 men).
Right for some, not all

GLP-1 drugs (Ozempic / Wegovy class)

Tier 1 cardiovascular-outcome evidence — but only in the population it was tested in: people who are overweight or obese with established or high cardiovascular risk, where it cut major cardiac events ~20%. There is no evidence, and no indication, for lean, metabolically healthy people taking it for "longevity." And because a third or more of the weight lost is lean mass, anyone on one should treat protein and resistance training as more important, not less.

Lincoff 2023, NEJM (SELECT, n=17,604); Wilding 2021, NEJM (lean-mass loss 45.2%).
Solid for one thing, unproven for another

Creatine monohydrate

The cheapest, most-studied, safest training adjunct — Tier 1–2 for strength and lean mass, working through the proven strength→longevity pathway (not as a longevity drug in itself; there's no direct mortality data). The popular cognitive claim is Tier 3: the signal shows up mostly in older, sleep-deprived, or stressed people, not healthy young adults. We won't promote it above its tier.

Chilibeck 2017 (strength/lean mass); Prokopidis 2023 & EFSA 2024 (cognition — unproven in healthy adults).
Early, invite-based beta

This is the standard we coach to.

If you'd want a longevity coach that cites every claim, names its evidence tiers, and tells you plainly when something is hype — that's the whole idea. It runs on your own computer, and your records stay in files you own.

An early beta — not a finished product, and not pretending to be.